Survey Says...NJ Member Poll Oct 2021

The following results and observations were obtained from the NJ Poll of National Association of Realtors members and hosted by Real Strategies in October 2021.

In general, we found that members’ views of market and economic conditions have continued to shift toward a more positive outlook, building on the trends we have seen since July 2020. Members report increases in housing prices and market activity, and housing inventory is an increasingly serious problem. Property taxes are also still a concern, at a level mostly unchanged from the July 2020 survey.

• Economic conditions continue to improve. Almost three-fourths (72 percent) of members now rate current economic conditions as excellent or good, while only a third (28 percent) rate conditions as just fair or poor. This marks a continued positive shift in economic outlook from the low point in April 2020 (26 percent excellent/good) and even higher than January 2021 (67 percent excellent/good). However, economic ratings are still below where they were in January 2020, before the lockdowns and economic restrictions began (85 percent excellent/good).
• Members continue to have confidence in the housing market, although there is more uncertainty about the future. Members use words like “crazy,” “insane,” and “on fire” to describe the current housing market. They universally say that prices are higher now than last April (94 percent). This marks a continued shift from July 2020, where 68 percent of members said that housing prices were higher than July 2019. A broad majority (82 percent) of members are very or somewhat confident in their local housing market, down slightly from January 2021 (89 percent). A plurality of members expect housing prices to continue to increase over the next 12 months (40 percent). However, more members expect prices to decrease (28 percent) than in January (21 percent). Regardless of whether members expect prices to increase or decrease, they foresee changes in prices of three percent or more.
• Members see a greater connection between COVID, inventory, and prices. Half of members (53 percent) say that inventory has a huge impact on housing prices, up from 35 percent in January. Another 38 percent say that inventory has a big impact (90 percent total huge or big impact). Three-fourths (74 percent) of members say Covid-19 has had a huge or big impact on housing prices, up from only 45 percent in July 2020.
• Fewer clients are withdrawing from the market because of COVID. Forty-seven percent of members report having residential real estate clients decide to hold off on selling or buying because of COVID-19, down from 52 percent in January, 57 percent in July, and 85 percent at the beginning of the pandemic. Those who did withdraw have not necessarily returned. Only twenty percent of members report that all (6 percent) or most (15 percent) of their clients who withdrew have returned to the market. On the other hand, the number of out-of-state clients remains high. Just over half of members (57 percent) report currently working with out-of-state clients, and of those members, 67 percent report having more out-of-state buyers compared to this time last year.
• Clients are not finding what they want within their price range.Members continue to report less satisfaction among their current clients with the housing options in their price range (26 percent total satisfied, down from 30 percent in January, 42 percent in July, and 69 percent in January 2020, before the pandemic). Members remain measured in their predictions that their current clients will be able to find a house that meets all of their "must haves" in their price range AND in their ideal location. On a 5-point scale, where 1 means very likely and 5 means not likely at all, their average rating is 3.6. (down from 3.0 last April). Only 12 percent of members rate the likelihood of finding everything on their list as a 1 or a 2, meaning very or somewhat likely. Clients are most likely to compromise on location (17 percent), price (19 percent), and other “must haves” (20 percent), or to withdraw from the market (25 percent).
• Property tax concerns continue to weigh heavily on buyers. Overall, 75 percent of members see property taxes as the most important or a major factor for clients, unchanged from July, but down from 87 percent in the “before times” of January 2020. Over half (54 percent) of members say they have had buyers who could afford the mortgage payments on a house they liked, but the property taxes made the monthly payment too high. Forty-four percent of members report clients deciding to move or sell because their property taxes were too high, down from 52 percent in July. Of those members, half (51 percent) report having clients who moved out of state.
• Members personal financial situation has rebounded from last April. One-third (35 percent) of members say they are better off financially than they were a year ago, up from 17 percent last April. Similarly, the proportion of members who say they are worse off is down from 48 percent last April to 28 percent now.
• New Jersey REALTORS® continues to receive positive job performance ratings in handling Covid-19. Twenty-nine percent of members rate the association’s handling of Covid-19 as excellent, and an additional 48 percent rate it as good. The association’s job performance rating has mostly held steady over the past year.